HVAC Google Ads: Furnace Repair Searches 3x to 7x in January

How much do furnace repair searches rise in winter? In each of the last four heating seasons, US searches for “furnace repair” in January ran 2.7 to 7.4 times the slowest month of the same season, by Google Keyword Planner’s estimates: about 3x in the three seasons from 2022 to 2025, and 7.4x in the season that ended in August 2026. For HVAC Google Ads, that swing should set the plan: a budget, call schedule and campaign mix set for a slow summer week will not fit January.

This guide shows the national search data month by month, which heating searches swing the most, and what to change in an HVAC Google Ads account before the cold arrives. For campaign structure, benchmarks and the budget math behind them, start with our guide to Google Ads for HVAC companies.

What Four Years of Furnace Repair Searches Show

We pulled Google Keyword Planner’s monthly estimates for “furnace repair” in the United States from September 2022 to August 2026: four heating seasons, each counted from September to August. Keyword Planner counts searches for a keyword and its close variants, for the months, location and network you choose, so “furnace repairs” is inside the same number. The table sets January against the slowest month of each season.

Source: Google Keyword Planner, United States, English, Google Search only, pulled October 11, 2026. Keyword Planner’s volumes are rounded estimates. The ratios and shares are our arithmetic, rounded; an even spread across the year would put 42% of a season’s searches in October to February.

Two things held in every season: January ran at least 2.7 times the slowest month, and October to February, 5 of the 12 months, held 51% to 71% of the season’s searches. January was also the busiest month, or tied for it, in three of the four seasons; in the 2023 to 2024 season, November ran higher, at 201,000 to January’s 165,000.

The size of the swing did not hold. Keyword Planner’s January estimate went from 135,000 in 2023 to 450,000 in 2026, and the latest season’s 7.4x is more than twice the three before it. Google notes that your search volume statistics are rounded, and that the number of searches on your keywords is constantly fluctuating, with seasonality and current events among the causes. So we read the shape of each season, not one season’s multiple.

When is HVAC busy season?

In the search data, heating and cooling peak at opposite times of year. In all four seasons, “furnace repair” peaked between November and February, and “AC repair” peaked in June or July. Furnace repair was slowest between April and August, and AC repair between November and February. October to February held only 27% to 32% of AC repair searches. The spring and early fall months sit between the two peaks.

The chart shows the latest season. Furnace repair searches rose from 110,000 in September 2025 to 450,000 in January, then fell to 60,500 in June, while AC repair ran the other way.

Which heating searches swing the most

We pulled close variants and related heating searches in the same request. They do not move together:

• “Furnace not working” swings hardest of these. January ran 14 to 25 times its slowest month in every season, and October to February held 79% to 82% of its searches. It is a small search, about 1,300 a month on average in the latest season, and its wording is a homeowner’s problem, not a service name.
• “Furnace tune up” peaks first. It peaked in October in all four seasons (tied with November in 2023), while repair searches peaked between November and February. That fits ENERGY STAR’s advice to have the heating system checked in the fall, because contractors get busy once winter comes.
• “Furnace replacement” has been steadier since 2023. In the last three seasons, January ran 1.8 to 2.8 times its slowest month, and October to February held 45% to 46% of its searches, close to an even spread. In two of those three seasons, its busiest month came before the heating season: August 2024 and September 2025.
• “Furnace repair near me” and “heater repair” follow the head term. January ran 4.1 to 11.1 times the slowest month for the first, and 3.4 to 6.2 times for the second, which Keyword Planner groups with “heating repair”.

How to Set HVAC Google Ads for the Heating Season

Here is what we change before the heating peak. Most of it is set once a season, and none of it needs a new tool.

Give heating and cooling their own campaigns

Our rule is one campaign per service, each sending people to a page about that service. For an HVAC company, that means heating and cooling do not share a campaign or a budget, so each budget can follow its own season. In the latest season, furnace repair searches ran ahead of AC repair from November 2025 to February 2026, and AC repair ran ahead in every other month.

Set the budget before the month starts

A campaign’s budget is spent unevenly on purpose. Google optimizes spend toward the days of the month when you’re more likely to get clicks and conversions, such as when more people are searching, and for most campaigns, it can spend up to two times the average daily budget on a given day, but no more than 30.4 times it in a month. So a cold snap can draw more than the daily budget on its busiest days, but the month as a whole still stops at the monthly limit.

Raising the budget late does less than it seems. When you change the budget, spend for the rest of the month can’t exceed the new average daily budget times the calendar days left in the month. Raise it on January 20, and the new amount covers only the 12 days that are left, counting the 20th. So set the December and January budgets before each month starts, from last winter’s numbers, and watch for campaigns marked “limited by budget”, whose ads might not show as often as you’d like, or at all.

If your campaigns have history, Google’s Performance Planner lets you create plans for your advertising spend and see how changes might affect key metrics, and Google lists understanding opportunities in seasonal periods among its uses. It needs that history: a Search campaign needs at least 3 clicks, 10 impressions and 1 conversion, among other requirements. For the yearly number itself, see how to set a Google Ads budget for a local service business.

Leave seasonality adjustments for short events

Google Ads has a setting that sounds made for this, and mostly isn’t. Seasonality adjustments tell Smart Bidding to expect a change in conversion rates during a future event, like a promotion or sale. Google says to use them only if you expect major changes to conversion rates, because Smart Bidding already manages seasonal events, and calls them ideal for short events of 1 to 7 days that may not work as well past 14 days. A heating season runs for months, so it is not one of those events. A three-day tune-up promotion could be.

Google’s pages leave a gap here. The seasonality page says Smart Bidding already manages seasonal events, but the Smart Bidding page, in its list of important bidding signals, names seasonality for Shopping campaigns only. The safe reading for a Search campaign: do not count on the bidding to see the cold coming. The budget is the part you set ahead.

Run ads and call assets when someone answers

By default, campaigns show ads all day. An ad schedule can limit them to the hours when you are available to handle customer inquiries, and a call asset can be scheduled to show only on certain days and hours, for example, only when your business is answering phone calls. Our rule: if more than 15% of calls go unanswered, fix call handling before you buy more clicks. If you also run Local Services Ads, plan its weekly budget around the busy season too, as our guide to Google Local Services Ads for HVAC explains.

Sell tune-ups before the repair peak

Fall is not quiet in the search data. Tune-up searches peaked in October in all four seasons, and ENERGY STAR recommends annual pre-season check-ups by a contractor, with the heating system checked in the fall and the cooling system in the spring. That makes September and October the months for a tune-up campaign or offer, and a promotion asset can be scheduled for specific dates, days of the week or times of day. In spring, the same logic applies to AC check-ups.

Check your own market’s curve

The national series blends every climate, so your market’s curve may be flatter or steeper. To see it, open Keyword Planner from the Tools menu, select Get search volume and forecasts, and enter your keywords, then set the location to your service area, since its search numbers follow the month range, location and network settings you select. Use the same months for every comparison, and read each term on its own rather than adding rounded volumes together.

Google Trends gives a free second view. It divides each data point by the total searches of its place and time range, then scales the results from 0 to 100, so it shows the shape of interest, not a count, and Google says to treat Trends data as one data point among others before drawing conclusions.

Judge winter against last winter

A heating season changes what a normal month looks like, so comparing a month with the one before it mostly measures the season. As our Google Ads benchmarks guide puts it, set the month against the same month a year earlier, not against a benchmark average. Compare this January with last January, and judge both on what a booked job cost, not on clicks or leads.

Get Your HVAC Google Ads Ready for Winter

Look at your own numbers first if your heating campaigns showed “limited by budget” last winter, if your ads and call assets run when nobody answers the phone, or if you cannot say what a booked heating job cost from Google Ads last January.

We manage Google Search and Local Services Ads for home service companies, clinics and other local businesses that can count a booked customer. The first month fixes the measurement, then rebuilds Search around the jobs you want: one campaign per service, each sending people to a page about that service. Every month, we review search terms and booked jobs and move budget toward what books. Every monthly report starts with one number: what a booked customer cost you, with our fee included. Our fee is 25% of ad spend with a $500 minimum, and the rate drops as spend grows. Google Ads management is month to month, with 30 days’ notice to cancel. See how our Google Ads and Local Services Ads management works.

Or start with the free basic audit: five short fields, no call needed. It shows where the money went, what a booked customer costs, whether your tracking can be trusted, and what we would change first. The basic audit is free. A deeper audit is paid, and we tell you the price before we start. Get the free audit.

Sources

1. Google Ads Help, About Keyword Planner forecasts. Checked October 11, 2026.
2. ENERGY STAR, Maintenance Checklist. Checked October 11, 2026.
3. Google Ads Help, About average daily budgets. Checked October 11, 2026.
4. Google Ads Help, How budget changes take effect. Checked October 11, 2026.
5. Google Ads Help, Tips for optimizing your average daily budget. Checked October 11, 2026.
6. Google Ads Help, About Performance Planner. Checked October 11, 2026.
7. Google Ads Help, About seasonality adjustments. Checked October 11, 2026.
8. Google Ads Help, About Smart Bidding. Checked October 11, 2026.
9. Google Ads Help, About Ad Scheduling. Checked October 11, 2026.
10. Google Ads Help, About call assets. Checked October 11, 2026.
11. Google Ads Help, About promotion assets. Checked October 11, 2026.
12. Google Ads Help, Use Keyword Planner. Checked October 11, 2026.
13. Google Trends Help, FAQ about Google Trends data. Checked October 11, 2026.

The search figures are Google Keyword Planner estimates for the United States, in English, for Google Search only, which we pulled on October 11, 2026. They count searches, not jobs, and no client account or market is shown. The ratios and shares are our arithmetic on them.